Tuesday, 1 November 2011

Future Dynamics of Pakistani Politics

For political network and support, People are arranged, managed, assembled and manipulated in four categories, according to political requirement of affiliation, attachment, attraction, and approach;

Category 1: Personal Contact Persons (Mostly from Own Community or Locality) are affiliated for arrangements of Political Networking.

Maximum amount from a total population can be engaged about 10% but depend on the area of party structure and ability to establish the contacts.

Category 2: Ideologically Influenced Persons (Mostly interested in Good Governance and Stable Economic System) are attached to manage the Political Networking.

Maximum amount from a total population can be engaged about 20% but depend on the area of party structure and ability to launch the ideology.

Category 3: Emotionally Activated Persons (Mostly concerned about Community and Regional Issues) are attracted to assemble the Public Support form Masses.

Maximum amount from a total population can be engaged about 30% but depend on the area of party structure and ability to motivate the emotions.              

Category 4: Opportunistic Mind Persons. (Mostly desires Support for Business and Power Advantages) are approached to manipulate the Public Support form Masses.

Maximum amount from a total population can be engaged about 40% but depend on the area of party structure and ability to deliver the opportunity.

In Pakistani politics, PPP had all four categories in party cadre till Benazir Bhutto era, but now mostly have Category 1 and 4 and losing the Category 2 and 3.

PMLN had and have Category 1 and 4, neither had nor have Category 2 and 3.

PTI have Category 1 and 3; don’t have Category 2 and 4.

PMLN and PTI are Punjab-based political parties. In future politics of Pakistan, PMLN and PTI are presumed to be the major political parties of Punjab and many political actors of PPP and PMLQ will join the PMLN and PTI before next election.

Since the creation of Pakistan, 1st time in the history of Pakistan, Punjab will be the base of National Political Leadership, National Political Parties, and Centre of National Democratic Politics. It will change the dynamics of politics at 180 degrees.

The political influence of PPP will become limited in Rural Sindh.

MQM will remain limited in Karachi.

ANP and JUI will remain the provincial level parties of KPK.


PMLN will infiltrate in Rural Sindh and Baluchistan, PTI in KPK and FATA.